Darwin tells you what just happened.
We tell you what's about to happen.

Multi-algorithm ensemble prediction for UK rail. Starting with Thameslink — the most complex franchise on the network.

135
Stations monitored
2,840
Daily services
1 in 7
Fail PPM target
£22.9M
Performance fees at stake
On time Delayed Ghost service
The Problem
Everyone parrots Darwin. Nobody predicts.
Every travel app in the UK shows you the same stale data feed. When Darwin is wrong, they're all wrong together.

Everyone Else

  • × Reads Darwin feed verbatim
  • × Shows "On time" until it isn't
  • × No cascade prediction
  • × No crew/stock modelling
  • × Reactive, never proactive
  • × Same data, different skin
Trainline · Google Maps · Citymapper · National Rail · RealTimeTrains

TrainBrain

  • ✓ 6 prediction algorithms in ensemble
  • ✓ Kalman filtering on live positions
  • ✓ Cascade & knock-on prediction
  • ✓ Platform conflict detection
  • ✓ Crew diagram awareness
  • ✓ Predicts before Darwin announces
Darwin vs TrainBrain
Side by side, algorithm by algorithm.

× Darwin (Network Rail)

ApproachLinear extrapolation
Cascade modellingNone
Platform conflictsIgnored
Crew/stockNot modelled
Update frequency~60s (batched)
Prediction horizonNext stop only
PPM accuracyBaseline

✓ TrainBrain

ApproachMulti-algorithm ensemble
Cascade modellingFull core route
Platform conflictsDetected & scored
Crew/stockDiagram-aware
Update frequency~5s (streaming)
Prediction horizonFull remaining journey
PPM accuracy+50% vs Darwin (target)
Research proof: Zipabout and Birmingham University demonstrated that ML-based prediction was 50% more accurate than Darwin's linear extrapolation across the UK network. TrainBrain builds on this foundation with route-specific ensemble models.
The Money
Thameslink's performance regime is enormous.
£8.8M
Base performance fee
£22.9M
Performance bonus pool
£31.7M
Total annual at stake
Serving 298 million passenger journeys per year
Nationalisation: 31 May 2026

When Govia Thameslink Railway transfers to Great British Railways, the performance regime resets. New operator, new contracts, new opportunity. TrainBrain is building to be ready on day one.

Roadmap
Building toward nationalisation day.
Feb 2026
Data Ingestion
Darwin push-port feed, TRUST movements, TD berth-stepping. Real-time pipeline into TrainBrain core.
Mar 2026
Model Calibration
Kalman filter tuning on Thameslink core. Ensemble weight optimisation across 6 algorithm candidates.
Apr 2026
Accuracy Dashboard
Live comparison: TrainBrain prediction vs Darwin vs actual. Public accuracy metrics.
31 May 2026
Nationalisation Day
GTR transfers to GBR. TrainBrain proven and ready for the new operator's performance regime.
Q3 2026
GBR Pitch
Formal proposal to Great British Railways. Accuracy data, cost model, integration plan.
Adroit DI Family
Intelligence products for UK transport.
🚌

BusBrain

Real-time bus prediction for London and regional networks. Live at bus-brain.com.

Live
🚂

TrainBrain

Ensemble rail prediction starting with Thameslink. The most complex franchise, cracked first.

Building
📊

StatBrain

Historical analytics and pattern detection across all UK transport modes.

Planned

Try the app. Question the data.

See Darwin's live feed through TrainBrain's lens. Thameslink departures, right now.

Open TrainBrain App →